How TcgEV measures trading card markets

01 / CORE METRICS

What the numbers mean

Card price

The latest supported raw or Near Mint market observation for the exact card printing and finish used by the game model.

Raw set value

The sum of available current raw card prices in the tracked set. It describes the catalog's current market value, not the expected contents of one pack.

Gross pack EV

The probability-weighted value of modeled pack outcomes before selling friction. Pull rates are applied to the eligible cards and finishes in each pack slot.

Pack price

The tracked unopened product price divided by its documented pack count. TcgEV does not use arbitrary loose-pack listings when a supported sealed product is available.

Expected return

Gross pack EV compared with the derived pack price. A positive value means modeled card value exceeds sealed entry price; it does not guarantee profit.

Sealed premium

Pack price divided by gross pack EV. A lower multiple means sealed entry is cheaper relative to modeled pack contents.

02 / MARKET SIGNALS

Opportunity and recommendation

Opportunity compares a set's expected-return edge with eligible peer sets in the same game and era. The percentile is its inclusive rank in that peer group, while relative opportunity is its distance from the peer median.

The recommendation compares current sealed premium, gross pack EV, and raw set-value density with eligible products in the same game. Lower sealed premium can favor sealed. Higher premium favors singles only when pack contents and set-value density are strong relative to peers; otherwise the model can return avoid or no bias.

Recommendations use current cohort evidence. Historical charts provide context, but thirty days of history alone does not make a set eligible. A usable current EV snapshot, sealed price, card values, and a sufficiently large peer cohort are required.

03 / SOURCES & COVERAGE

Where the data comes from

Pokemon identities originate from the PokemonTCG catalog, with supported current and historical card and sealed observations imported from configured market providers. Disney Lorcana, One Piece, and Riftbound identities, print variants, and card prices are imported from Scrydex; supported unopened product history is imported from JustTCG or the documented game-specific provider. Riftbound publishes modeled-hit EV from supplied foil Epic, Alt Art, Overnumbered, and Signature Overnumbered rates. Vendetta regular and Crystal Rose Alt Arts are mutually exclusive outcomes in one shared Alt Art hit pool, weighted by eligible card count. Common and Uncommon retain separate normal and foil prices; Rare and higher use foil prices. The dedicated foil slot and base Common, Uncommon, and Rare outcomes remain excluded until their distribution is supplied.

Pull-rate profiles are versioned and retain their source and methodology notes. Some rates come from published product composition, supplied opening data, or clearly identified community estimates. Historical EV is recalculated when a profile changes so charts use the model attached to each published snapshot.

Coverage measures how much of a modeled pool has usable pricing. TcgEV withholds calculations that do not meet the applicable threshold, except for explicitly modeled source gaps such as permitted Lorcana cold-foil omissions. Each set page shows the latest available market date and coverage.

04 / LIMITATIONS

What the model does not claim

Trading card prices, pull-rate estimates, liquidity, grading outcomes, fees, taxes, and product composition can change. Gross EV is an average across many hypothetical openings and does not describe the result of an individual pack. Raw set value does not measure how quickly every card can be sold.

TcgEV provides market analytics, not individualized financial advice or a promise of appreciation. A ranking or recommendation is a reproducible comparison of current inputs, not a forecast or instruction to buy.